Modi in Ukraine :Diplomatic tightrope for Modi as he visits Kyiv after Moscow
Diplomatic tightrope for Modi as he visits Kyiv after Moscow
Updated : 22 /08/2024
by M.k.karikalsozhan Blog Reporter
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to visit Ukraine on Friday, just weeks after meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow. The significance of this visit cannot be overstated, particularly given the sharp reactions from Kyiv and certain Western capitals following Mr Modi’s trip to Moscow in July. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was particularly vocal, expressing his disappointment at seeing the leader of the world's largest democracy embrace a figure he described as "the world's most bloody criminal."
So, is Mr Modi’s visit to Kyiv a gesture to appease Mr Zelensky and other Western leaders? Not entirely. India has long been known for its non-alignment approach in geopolitics, successfully balancing relations between competing nations or blocs. This upcoming visit—the first by an Indian prime minister to Ukraine—signals that while India continues to maintain strong ties with Russia, it is equally committed to working closely with the West.
Michael Kugelman, Director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Centre in Washington, notes that this trip underscores India’s strategic autonomy. "India isn’t in the business of placating Western powers or anyone else. This visit is about advancing Indian interests, reaffirming its friendship with Kyiv, and conveying its concerns about the ongoing conflict," he explains.
However, the timing of the visit suggests that Indian diplomats have taken note of the sharp reactions from the US following Mr Modi's Moscow visit. Although India has refrained from directly criticising Russia over the war, much to the frustration of Western powers, it has consistently emphasised the importance of respecting the territorial integrity and sovereignty of nations. India has also been a vocal advocate for diplomacy and dialogue to end the war.
Mr Modi’s visit to Moscow in July occurred just hours after Russian airstrikes killed at least 41 people in Ukraine, including at a children's hospital in Kyiv, prompting global outrage. While Mr Modi expressed deep sorrow over the deaths, he stopped short of directly blaming Russia. It is unlikely that Mr Modi will deviate from this stance during his visit to Kyiv. The US and other Western nations have come to accept India’s position, given its longstanding relationship with Moscow and reliance on Russian military equipment.
India remains the world’s largest arms importer, and while it has diversified its defence import portfolio and bolstered domestic manufacturing in recent years, it still sources more than 50% of its defence equipment from Russia. Additionally, India has increased its oil imports from Russia, capitalising on the lower prices offered by Moscow—last year, Russia was India's top oil supplier.
The US and its allies have often urged India to take a firmer stance on the war, but they have stopped short of applying harsh sanctions or pressure. The West views India as a counterbalance to China and does not wish to upset that delicate balance. As the world’s fifth-largest economy, India is also a growing market for business, making it an important partner for the West.
Mr Modi's visit to Kyiv comes days after Ukrainian forces staged a counter-offensive into Russia
Mr Kugelman believes the West will view Mr Modi’s visit as a positive sign of Delhi’s willingness to engage with all sides. "Mr Modi has a strong incentive to show that India is not leaning so closely to Moscow that its relationship with Kyiv is beyond salvage," he says. This is particularly important as India seeks to strengthen its relations with the West, especially with the US. The US ambassador to India, Eric Garcetti, recently emphasised that the relationship between the two countries should not be "taken for granted."
India also recognises the importance of its relationship with the West, particularly in light of the growing ties between China, its Asian rival, and Russia. While Delhi has long viewed Moscow as a power capable of exerting pressure on an assertive China when necessary, it understands that this cannot be taken for granted.
Meanwhile, some commentators have speculated about the possibility of Mr Modi positioning himself as a peacemaker, given India’s close relations with both Moscow and the West. However, this scenario seems unlikely. "Is India really up to it, and are the conditions right? India doesn’t appreciate other countries meddling in its own issues, such as Kashmir. I don’t think Mr Modi would offer formal mediation unless both Russia and Ukraine requested it, which at this point seems unlikely," Mr Kugelman adds.
Despite the complexities, Ukraine is likely to welcome Mr Modi’s visit as an opportunity to engage with a close ally of Moscow, something it has not had much opportunity to do since the war began. However, Mr Zelensky is unlikely to hold back his criticism of Mr Putin in front of the Indian prime minister—a situation Mr Modi is accustomed to handling in other Western capitals. Moscow, for its part, is unlikely to react strongly to the visit, as it has shown some flexibility regarding Delhi’s multilateral approach to geopolitics.
Beyond reaffirming its non-alignment policy, India has broader objectives for this visit. In recent years, India has ramped up its engagement with Europe, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe, which have been underserved regions in terms of diplomatic and economic relations. While India continues to consolidate its ties with major European powers like the UK, Italy, Germany, and France, it is also keen to strengthen its relationships with other European countries.
During this trip, Mr Modi will also visit Poland—the first visit by an Indian prime minister to the country in 45 years. In July, he became the first Indian prime minister to visit Austria in 41 years. Analysts interpret these visits as a signal of India’s growing understanding that Central European nations will play an increasingly important role in global geopolitics, and that strong relations with these countries will benefit Delhi in the long run.
The Indian government has also revived trade deal negotiations with Europe, recently signing a trade and investment agreement with the European Free Trade Association, which includes Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, and Switzerland.
While the focus during Mr Modi’s visit will undoubtedly be on the war in Ukraine, Indian diplomats are likely to keep their eyes on the bigger picture. "Central and Eastern Europe now have greater agency in shaping their own destiny and regional geopolitics. Mr Modi’s visits to Warsaw and Kyiv are about recognising this significant shift at the heart of Europe and deepening bilateral political, economic, and security ties with the Central European states," foreign policy analyst C Raja Mohan wrote in the Indian Express, summarising Mr Modi’s broader objectives.
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